From Rs 73k to over Rs 1.2L between January-December 2025 -- is buying gold in 2026 still sensible?
'An asset must generate income. Equities yield dividends, bonds pay coupons, deposits give interest, and real estate earns rent.' 'Gold, silver, and even Bitcoin produce no income, they merely store value. So, they should not be compared to productive assets.'
High frequency indicators, like vehicles sales, air traffic, steel consumption and GST E-way bills, point towards a sequential pickup in momentum of economic activity during the second half of the fiscal 2024-25 and sustain moving forward, RBI Bulletin said on Wednesday. However, a strong dollar, driven by US economic resilience and trade policy pivots, could exacerbate capital outflows from emerging economies, push risk premiums higher, and intensify external vulnerabilities, said an article on 'State of the Economy' published in RBI's February bulletin.
Capital investment by the private sector is likely to rise 21.5 per cent to Rs 2.67 lakh crore in 2025-26 aided by robust macroeconomic fundamentals, and a 100-bps policy rate cut, according to an RBI article. Despite global uncertainties, Indian firms entered the 2025-26 fiscal year with healthier balance sheets, higher cash buffer, improved profitability, and greater access to diversified funding sources, said the article 'Private Corporate Investment: Growth in 2024-25 and Outlook for 2025-26' published in the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) August bulletin.
S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday upgraded India's sovereign rating outlook to positive from stable while retaining the rating at 'BBB-' on robust growth and improved quality of government expenditure. S&P said it could upgrade India's sovereign rating in the next 2 years if the country adopts a cautious fiscal and monetary policy that diminishes the government's elevated debt and interest burden while bolstering economic resilience.
'Given the lag in transmission, further softening of lending rates may happen in the coming months.'
Defence Minister Rajnath Singh lauded 'Operation Sindoor' as a prime example of tri-services synergy, emphasizing Pakistan's ongoing recovery from the operation's impact. He highlighted the need for coordinated defense strategies and civil-military fusion to address modern security challenges.
Trading sentiment in the equity market will be guided by macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and quarterly earnings from IT major TCS this week, analysts said. Stock markets would also be tracking trading activity of foreign investors who remained net sellers of Indian equities in September.
India's GDP growth is likely to moderate from 8.2 per cent in 2023 to 7 per cent in 2024 and 6.5 per cent in 2025 because the pent-up demand accumulated during Covid has exhausted, as the economy reconnects with its potential, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday. About the global economy, the IMF said the battle against inflation has largely been won, even though price pressures persist in some countries.
The Indian economy could remain less affected by global trade wars than other countries because the two engines of domestic growth - consumption and investment - are likely to face a limited impact from such headwinds, according to an article on the 'State of the Economy' in the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) bulletin, released on Tuesday.
Ratings agency Moody's said on Tuesday that it has cut the outlook on the ratings of seven Adani entities to 'negative' from 'stable', citing the US indictment of chairman Gautam Adani and others on alleged bribery charges, while Fitch Ratings put some bonds of the conglomerate on negative watch. Moody's affirmed the ratings on all seven entities -- Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd, two limited restricted groups of Adani Green Energy Ltd, Adani Transmission Step-One Ltd, Adani Transportation Restricted group 1 (AESL RG1), Adani Electricity Mumbai Ltd and Adani International Container Terminal Pvt Ltd.
India's corporate bond market, driven by public sector undertaking (PSU) banks and financial institutions last year, is losing momentum since the second quarter of FY26.
The short-term inflation outlook for India is benign, and the expectation of a normal monsoon and moderating global prices of key imported items give credence to the projections made by the RBI and IMF, the Economic Survey said on Monday. However, to ensure long-term policy stability, the Survey 2023-24 suggested making focused efforts to increase the production of major oilseeds, expanding the area under pulses, and assess the progress in developing modern storage facilities for specific crops.
The information technology (IT) services industry may be headed for another year of sluggish growth. Based on the results of the top five IT services companies for the first quarter of 2025-26 (Q1FY26), analysts say the possibility of hitting high single-digit revenue growth in FY26 looks unlikely.
Stock markets will be driven by RBI's interest rate decision, tariff-related developments, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors in this holiday-shortened week, analysts said.
NITI Aayog member Arvind Virmani on Monday said India is set to become the fourth largest economy in the world by the end of 2025, an assertion which came days after NITI CEO BVR Subrahmanyam claimed India has already overtaken Japan to reach that spot. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released in April had said that India is expected to be the fourth largest economy in the world with a GDP of $4.19 trillion in 2025, ahead of Japan.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday upped India's GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal to 6.5 per cent, citing lower crude prices, monetary easing and normal monsoon, and said the ongoing geopolitical tensions are unlikely to put a "significant pressure" on the rupee or inflation.
Passenger vehicle retail sales shot up 35 per cent year-on-year during the nine-day Navratri period this year, helping the overall registrations last month grow 6 per cent, as offtakes remained muted in the first 21 days of the month and only took off after the roll-out of new GST rates on September 22, dealer' body FADA said on Tuesday.
The Indian economy is projected to grow at 6.2 per cent in 2025-26, slower than earlier estimated rate of 6.5 per cent, due to escalated trade tensions and global uncertainty, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday. "For India, the growth outlook is relatively more stable at 6.2 per cent in 2025, supported by private consumption, particularly in rural areas," IMF said in its World Economic Outlook (WEO).
Gold and silver prices are expected to maintain their upward trajectory this week, but may see late profit-booking amid the release of a series of crucial global economic indicators, analysts said. On the economic front, traders will closely monitor the manufacturing/ services PMI data from across regions and the US non-farm payrolls/ employment data along with consumer confidence for the month of September and speeches from several Federal Reserve officials, they added.
The rupee has held its ground against the US dollar in the 2025 calendar year so far, but depreciated significantly against the euro and pound. It fell by 6.83 per cent, and 5.44 per cent against the euro and pound respectively, as the two currencies strengthened significantly against the greenback during the period.
Silver prices are up 59.3 per cent in 2025, hitting nearly $44.55 an ounce (oz) in international markets and Rs 137,040 per kilogram (kg) in India on Thursday. It's the best return the metal has given since 2016.
Among Sensex firms, Eternal, Infosys, Asian Paints, HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finserv and Titan were the major gainers. However, Tata Steel, Tech Mahindra, Adani Ports and Bharat Electronics were among the laggards.
As a protege of Shinzo Abe, Takaichi is expected to scale bilateral ties much higher. Trade and investment shall grow. People-to-people contacts shall be scaled up, points out Dr Rajaram Panda.
The Survey is authored by Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran and his team.
Gold prices surged Rs 2,200 to hit a fresh peak of Rs 116,200 per 10 grams in the national capital on Monday buoyed by strong global cues as investors awaited key commentary from US Fed officials for policy direction. According to the All India Sarafa Association, the precious metal of 99.9 per cent purity had closed at Rs 1,14,000 per 10 grams on Friday.
Fuelled by the global capability centre (GCC) boom, gross leasing of office space across top eight cities soared 5 per cent to touch 21.4 million square feet (msf) in the second quarter of calendar year 2025, according to Cushman & Wakefield's Q2 India Office Market report.
Dalal Street is buzzing with excitement, as some of the most-awaited IPOs are gearing up to hit the market. While some of these big companies are planning to join the stock exchanges towards the end of 2025, others are likely to be available for trading by the first half of 2026.
Prospects of a bumper kharif harvest are expected to lower food inflation in the coming months, making the country's inflation outlook benign, the Union Ministry of Finance (FinMin) said in its monthly economic report for October released on Monday.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday cut India's GDP growth estimate by 10 basis points to 6.4 per cent for the current fiscal, but retained the projections for the next financial year, on concerns over a 'severe' escalation in global trade war. "It is hard to predict US trade policy with any confidence. Massive policy uncertainty is hurting business investment prospects, equity price falls are reducing household wealth, and US exporters will be hit by retaliation," Fitch said in its special update to quarterly Global Economic Outlook (GEO).
India's economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised downward to 6.3 per cent, and despite a projected moderation, the country remains one of the fastest-growing large economies, supported by resilient consumption and government spending, the United Nations has said.
Global rating agency Fitch on Thursday affirmed India's 'BBB-' rating with a stable outlook on strong growth outlook and fiscal credibility. Fitch said India is set to remain among the fastest-growing sovereigns globally with GDP growth of 7.2 per cent in the current fiscal year and 6.5 per cent in FY26, down from 8.2 per cent in FY24. "Fitch Ratings has affirmed India's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BBB-' with a Stable Outlook," the global rating agency said in a statement.
Despite a strong 7.8 per cent growth in the first quarter, the Indian economy is expected to grow at 6.5 per cent in the current financial year as the impact of US tariffs on Indian exports will reduce prospects, particularly in the second half, ADB said on Tuesday.
The transmission of the February and April rate cuts is now complete, validating the central bank's monetary stance and contributing to a revival in credit growth, said Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Friday. "We now have preliminary figures for June credit rates, and we find that for new loans, the rates are lower by at least 50 basis points (bps)... within two months of our 50-bp cut, we are in June, and the whole of the monetary policy transmission has happened.
Global funds have pulled out Rs 1.54 trillion from domestic stocks in fiscal 2024 - 25 (FY25), the highest-ever outflow recorded so far, according to the data compiled by Business Standard. The last time the global funds exited Indian shores in droves was back in 2022, when they sold a net Rs 1.41 in the backdrop of Covid-19.
Budget 2025 lays down a transformational roadmap for India's digital and economic future, focusing on AI-driven enterprise modernisation, workforce skilling, and sustainable innovation. With bold investments in AI, digital infrastructure, and ease of doing business, the government has set the stage for businesses to scale, innovate and compete on a global level.
Mahindra & Mahindra, Bharti Airtel, Infosys, Tata Motors, Titan, Tata Consultancy Services, Nestle and Maruti were also among the major laggards. HDFC Bank emerged as the only gainer from the pack.
Indian manufacturing sector witnessed the fastest improvement in operating conditions in over 17 years in August, driven by an increased production efficiency and healthy demand conditions, a monthly report said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 59.1 in July to 59.3 in August, indicating the fastest improvement in operating conditions for 17-and-a-half years.
Plans for big bang reforms in the GST regime by Diwali, the Putin-Trump summit and S&P upgrading India's sovereign credit rating are likely to instil optimism in the domestic equity market in the week ahead, analysts said. Besides, trends in global markets and the trading activity of foreign investors would also impact domestic investors' sentiment.
India's top IT services firms delivered single-digit revenue growth in April-June, capping off a mixed, somewhat-sobering quarter as macroeconomic instability and geopolitical tensions weighed on global tech demand and delayed client decisionmaking. Management commentary painted a mixed picture, caution prevailed, yet industry CEOs also emphasised cost optimisation, vendor consolidation, and opportunities in AI makeovers.
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